EURUSD Long Term counts update

Hello fellow traders,

nearly years end, only a few days left with sufficient liquidity - tempore furat   :-)

Last year I introduced my main count of an "Eternal Triangle" - see posting here for the theory behind it.


This eternal triangle count is valid till now. In the following charts I present two possible subdivisions of its internals as of late. One has the movements of the last months labeled as a contracting triangle as a wave B.
This contracting triangle is one of the counts Prechter is following, too. Personally I do not like this contracting triangle much.

As third chart I have labeled a very bearish chart, if come true, would surely call for the demise of the Euro - therefore I labeled it "death chart". You can say "Euro to zero" if you like.

In the next days I will update my medium and short term counts also. So stay tuned  :-)

Best to you all and have a nice weekend,

Markus

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – 08th November, 2011 -morning update

Hello Friends,


sorry for updating the charts such infrequent.

Unfortunately I am very busy with my day job over the last months, so I had to reduce the time spent on my blog.

I am often at Spider's Den at Forex Factory, where I publish relatively often counts.


This evening I spent a lot of time to come up with a reasonable count on Gold. Sometime we can't see the forest for the trees :-)

A switch to higher TF's brings then oftentimes the solution.

Please keep in mind, that the shown color code does not match the color code of this blog. When I find time later I will correct that.

This count asumes, that the top is in at 1920.59

Here is the count on 6h TF

Wave green 1 is around 62% of wave green 3 (or green 3 around 162% of green 1). If we asume wave green 3 eaquals wave green 5, then we get a target around 1829.4, which would coincide with the 74.6 retracement of the wave red 1.

Second best target out of measured moves is the area surrounding 1852 as marked on the chart


In green wave 5 we are probably now in subwave 3 (sub-subwave 4 of subwave 3). Out of messured moves this subwave 3 can run easily up to 1821, maybe the target for subwave 5 is then the above mentioned 1829.4 or 1852

With Gold lagging Silver, Gold should make a new high in the coming days.

Ideal targets fib-wise 1445, 1529 or 1547, Murrey Math-wise 1437, 1453, 1500 or 1562.


Over the last weeks it got clear, that the top was not in, because on weekly chart one was not able to count an impulse down.

And it made no sense to me at all, why Gold should be the first asset to start a big drop.

Is Gold done?

Price broke out of the channel of the contracting ending diagonal to the downside.

Channel line has been tested twice so far from the underside. On lower TF's and on daily we can count an impulse down so far.

Chances are high now, that Gold will take a first trip to 1000 over the next months. This ABC-move should bring Gold down to around 750-500. Autsch.......

But there are counts in the web where we will dive not that deep. We will see

Wave 4 Triangle

Hello all,

maybe a wave 4 triangle is forming. It would be a very logical move. Judging from the substructure of the move down from the top it is too early to conclude if the move down will develope corrective or impulsive, but so far I will go with corrective.

We will see......

Best to all of you,

Markus

New High in Gold - wave 5 on its way to 1500

In my last post I wrote:

"With Gold right now I am not really sure, if we have completed the primary 5 already. I would expect Awesome Oscillator to have the highest reading in a wave 5, but we did not get that so far.

Regarding Gold I stay cautious."

OK, seems that I get what I was calling for.

Gold made a new high today. Either we are now in a last wave 5 up, or we are in a wave 4 triangle with a last move down to around 1344, then up to conclude the whole formation wit a wave 5 targeting 1500 (alternative count).

Short term counts updated

With Gold right now I am not really sure, if we have completed the primary 5 already. I would expect Awesome Oscillator to have the highest reading in a wave 5, but we did not get that so far.

Regarding Gold I stay cautious.

United STRAITS of America: The Muni Bond Crisis Is Here

Elliott wave subscribers were prepared for municipal bonds troubles months in advance

November 24, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

This November, the whole world tuned in as the greater part
of the U.S.A.'s 50 states turned red -- and no, I don't mean
the political shift to a republican majority during the November
2 mid-term elections. I mean "in the red" -- as in,
financially fercockt, overdrawn, up to their eyeballs in debt.
Here are the latest stats: California, Florida, Illinois, and
New Jersey now suffer "Greek-like deficits," alongside
draconian budget cuts, job furloughs, suspensions of city services,
and the growing "rent-a-cop" trend of firing city workers
and then hiring outside contractors to fill those positions.
Next is the fact that the municipal bond market has been melting
like a snow cone in the Sahara desert. According to recent data,
35 muni bond issues totaling $1.5 billion have defaulted since
January 2010, three times the average annualized
rate going back to 1983. Also, in the week ending November 19,
investors withdrew a record $3.1 billion from mutual and exchange-traded
funds specializing in municipal debt, triggering the largest
one-day rise in yields since the panic of '08.

In the words of a recent LA Times article "It's
a cold, cold world in the municipal bond market right now."
And for those who never saw the muni bond crisis coming, it's
a lot colder.
Since at least 2008, the mainstream experts extolled munis for
their "safe haven resistance to recession." And while
muni bond woes are only now making headlines, one of the few
sources that foresaw the depth and degree of the crisis coming
ahead of time was Elliott Wave International's team of analysts.
Here's an excerpt from the April 2008 Elliott
Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF):

“One of the most vulnerable sectors of the debt
markets is the municipal bond market. Instead of being a
source of state and local funding, many residents will become
a cost. Default could hit at any moment after times get difficult… Yields
on tax-exempt municipal bonds are above yields on US Treasuries
for the first time in as long as anyone can remember, another
sign of how limited the supply of quality bonds will become.”

EWI continued to warn subscribers ever since:

February 2009 EWFF:
Special section “Out of the Frying Pan and into Munis” showed
the continued rise in muni yields ABOVE Treasury yields and
cautioned against the idea that tax-exempt debt was a “safe
bet.”

September 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist: "The
Next Disaster: The public has withdrawn some money from stock
mutual funds... But most investors ... are shunning treasuries
for high-yield money market funds and bond funds, which hold
less-than-pristine corporate and municipal debt."

And now, in the just-published November 19 Elliott Wave
Theorist, EWI president Robert Prechter captures the full
extent of the unfolding muni crisis via the following chart:

Read more about Robert Prechter's warnings for holders of municipals
and other bonds in his free report: The Next Major Disaster Developing
for Bond Holders. Access
your free 10-page report now.