Freitag, Juni 28, 2013




please find attached my EW count of Gold.


Some try to count the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 starting sequence as a leading diagonal. Out of my view this is more unlikely, because in Eliott Wave Principle the guideline for a wave 2, following a leading diagonal, says, that the wave 2 most of the time retraces very high (over 80%).


So I decided to count it as a series of 1-2's.


Samstag, Dezember 03, 2011

EURUSD Long Term counts update

Hello fellow traders,

nearly years end, only a few days left with sufficient liquidity - tempore furat   :-)

Last year I introduced my main count of an "Eternal Triangle" - see posting here for the theory behind it.


This eternal triangle count is valid till now. In the following charts I present two possible subdivisions of its internals as of late. One has the movements of the last months labeled as a contracting triangle as a wave B.
This contracting triangle is one of the counts Prechter is following, too. Personally I do not like this contracting triangle much.

As third chart I have labeled a very bearish chart, if come true, would surely call for the demise of the Euro - therefore I labeled it "death chart". You can say "Euro to zero" if you like.

In the next days I will update my medium and short term counts also. So stay tuned  :-)

Best to you all and have a nice weekend,

Markus





Dienstag, November 08, 2011

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – 08th November, 2011 -morning update

Hello Friends,


sorry for updating the charts such infrequent.

Unfortunately I am very busy with my day job over the last months, so I had to reduce the time spent on my blog.

I am often at Spider's Den at Forex Factory, where I publish relatively often counts.


This evening I spent a lot of time to come up with a reasonable count on Gold. Sometime we can't see the forest for the trees :-)

A switch to higher TF's brings then oftentimes the solution.

Please keep in mind, that the shown color code does not match the color code of this blog. When I find time later I will correct that.

This count asumes, that the top is in at 1920.59

Here is the count on 6h TF

Wave green 1 is around 62% of wave green 3 (or green 3 around 162% of green 1). If we asume wave green 3 eaquals wave green 5, then we get a target around 1829.4, which would coincide with the 74.6 retracement of the wave red 1.

Second best target out of measured moves is the area surrounding 1852 as marked on the chart


In green wave 5 we are probably now in subwave 3 (sub-subwave 4 of subwave 3). Out of messured moves this subwave 3 can run easily up to 1821, maybe the target for subwave 5 is then the above mentioned 1829.4 or 1852



Samstag, Februar 26, 2011


With Gold lagging Silver, Gold should make a new high in the coming days.

Ideal targets fib-wise 1445, 1529 or 1547, Murrey Math-wise 1437, 1453, 1500 or 1562.


Over the last weeks it got clear, that the top was not in, because on weekly chart one was not able to count an impulse down.

And it made no sense to me at all, why Gold should be the first asset to start a big drop.

Donnerstag, Januar 06, 2011

Is Gold done?



Price broke out of the channel of the contracting ending diagonal to the downside.

Channel line has been tested twice so far from the underside. On lower TF's and on daily we can count an impulse down so far.

Chances are high now, that Gold will take a first trip to 1000 over the next months. This ABC-move should bring Gold down to around 750-500. Autsch.......

But there are counts in the web where we will dive not that deep. We will see

Freitag, Dezember 10, 2010

Wave 4 Triangle




Hello all,

maybe a wave 4 triangle is forming. It would be a very logical move. Judging from the substructure of the move down from the top it is too early to conclude if the move down will develope corrective or impulsive, but so far I will go with corrective.

We will see......

Best to all of you,

Markus

Dienstag, Dezember 07, 2010

New High in Gold - wave 5 on its way to 1500

In my last post I wrote:

"With Gold right now I am not really sure, if we have completed the primary 5 already. I would expect Awesome Oscillator to have the highest reading in a wave 5, but we did not get that so far.

Regarding Gold I stay cautious."

OK, seems that I get what I was calling for.

Gold made a new high today. Either we are now in a last wave 5 up, or we are in a wave 4 triangle with a last move down to around 1344, then up to conclude the whole formation wit a wave 5 targeting 1500 (alternative count).